By the Numbers

Baseball, more than any other sport, is obsessed with statistics. There are literally hundreds of them to choose from, and the individual nature of the sport means that many of these depend on nothing else other than the skills of the player or the team. One statistic that is most often a good indicator of how well a team is doing is the run differential.

It is this statistic that sticks out about the Cubs right now. So far this year the Cubs have scored 142 runs and have only given up 108. Major League Baseball uses a formula to determine what a team's record should be based on their runs scored and runs against. This early on in the season it won't always be accurate, at the moment the expected record only matches the actual record for 8 teams, but as the season progresses this statistic should be closer and closer to reality.

According to this expected W-L record, the Cubs should have an 18-11 record right now which would be good for 3rd in all of baseball if everyone else had their expected records as well. So why the discrepancy? Why are we 15-14? As I mentioned in this game summary, it's because the Cubs like to score their runs in chunks. When we win, we win by a lot, and when we lose, it's usually by one or two. The law of averages says that this won't continue, and soon enough the Cubs' record will match their run differential. Of course that same law of averages says that the Cubs should have won a couple of World Series titles in the past 98 years, so maybe I'm just full of it.

Tonight's game is at 7:05, let's see if we can get that 6 game winning streak and work on this mediocre record. Summary will be up late tonight.