Monday, April 23, 2007

Season in Review: The 1/9th Mark (Offense)

Who came up with a 162 game season? Doesn't that seem like a really strange number to settle on? Why not just stop at 160, or better yet, 150? No they went with 162, a number that you can't divide by 10. So I'm going with a better number, 9. Every 18 games, or 1/9th of the season, I will be reviewing how the Cubs are doing so far.

Today was game number 18, and the Cubs have already been through their star player getting injured and recovering. Now that he is back, starting tomorrow, there is a logjam of people wanting to play in right field. Assuming that Pie performs well enough to stay up in the big leagues, Hendry really does need to deal someone or else this presents a bit of a problem.

As for the team's progress so far, we're 7-11. Not exactly where we had hoped to be. However, considering we've endured Zambrano's horrible April and Soriano's injury, I think things could be worse. The offense will get things moving, and Lou will get a little angrier with each passing day. If you look at the stats, you can see where those numbers are going to improve and how much of a difference that will make on the offensive side. I've outlined those below. Pitching review comes tomorrow, or when I have some free time, whichever comes first.

Hitting:


Alfonso Soriano


  • Was injured in the 12th game of the season with a strained hamstring. Replaced by the much anticipated Felix Pie. Has no home runs, a disappointing average, and is generally underperforming.
  • Current Stats: .260 AVG, 6 R, 1 RBI, 0 HR, .302 OBP.
  • Projected Stats: .260 AVG, 78 R, 13 RBI, 0 HR, .302 OBP.
  • Thoughts: Those are not leadoff man numbers. Those aren't even little league numbers. We know that he'll pick up the slack but wow, looks like a waste of time and money right now.

Matt Murton


  • Sharing playing time with Cliff Floyd, which isn't helping his numbers. Will play even less if he's sharing right field with Floyd and Jones. Hendry needs to deal someone quickly.
  • Current Stats: .278 AVG, .333 OBP, 6 R, 2 RBI, 0 HR.
  • Projected Stats: .278 AVG, .333 OBP, 64 R, 18 RBI, 0 HR.
  • Thoughts: Again, I'm sure these numbers will go up. Maybe not the average part, but the RBIs and runs will catch up once he gets back into some sort of groove. A couple of the Cubs just haven't gotten into the swing of things yet. Which brings me to...


Derrek Lee



  • Current Stats: .348 AVG, .451 OBP, 14 R, 11 RBI, 0 HR.
  • Projected Stats: .348 AVG, .451 OBP, 126 R, 99 RBI, 0 HR.
  • Thoughts: Lee is putting up batting title numbers right now, he just hasn't gotten that first home run yet. The RBIs should be a little higher too, but that's probably coming from Alfonso's inability to get on. Lee will be incredible this year.


Aramis Ramirez


  • Current Stats: .339 AVG, .371 OBP, 9 R, 12 RBI, 3 HR.
  • Projected Stats: .339 AVG, .371 OBP, 81 R, 108 RBI, 27 HR.
  • Thoughts: Aramis is another player whose power numbers should pick up the pace as time goes on. It won't be as drastic, but I would be surprised if his home runs weren't in the 35-40 range at least. His average is great though, keep that up A-Ram.


Michael Barrett


  • Current Stats: .281 AVG, .348 OBP, 7 R, 15 RBI, 4 HR.
  • Projected Stats: .281 AVG, .348 OBP, 63 R, 135 RBI, 36 HR.
  • Thoughts: In this case, Barrett's numbers will go down slightly. His numbers are a little inflated because he has had 3 home runs in the past three games. So if I had done this review two games ago, I would have been projecting 20 home runs for him. Either way, he's doing a great job as a hitting catcher.


Mark DeRosa


  • Current Stats: .259 AVG, .310 OBP, 6 R, 13 RBI, 4 HR.
  • Projected Stats: .259 AVG, .310 OBP, 54 R, 117 RBI, 36 HR
  • Thoughts: DeRosa has been pleasantly surprising. Put up good power numbers from the start, showing that maybe last year wasn't a fluke. Has been fairly versatile in the field as well, playing infield and outfield as needed.


Jacque Jones


  • Current Stats: .292 AVG, .361 OBP, 7 R, 3 RBI, 0 HR.
  • Projected Stats: .292 AVG, .361 OBP, 63 R, 27 RBI, 0 HR.
  • Thoughts: This is yet another example of getting off to a slow start. Like the others, his average is good put the power numbers just aren't there. May come in time, or we may trade him. I hope it's the latter.


Cesar Izturis


  • Current Stats: .182 AVG, .250 OBP, 3 R, 2 RBI, 0 HR.
  • Projected Stats: .182 AVG, .250 OBP, 27 R, 18 RBI, 0 HR.
  • Thoughts: Cesar isn't supposed to be a great hitter, we know that. But a .182 average? That's not gonna fly. And he's not being the gold glove shortstop we're paying for either, considering he had 3 errors in one game. Bad form Cesar. Bad form.


Felix Pie


  • Current Stats: .136 AVG, .174 OBP, 3 R, 1 RBI, 0 HR.
  • Projected Stats: .136 AVG, .174 OBP, 89 R, 30 RBI, 0 HR.
  • Thoughts: These numbers have been adjusted to assume that Felix will play every game for the rest of the season. He's only played in 5 so far so these projections will be completely off. The average will pick up, the power will pick up, and at the rate he's going he'll finish the year with about 162 spectacular plays in center field.


Ryan Theriot


  • Current Stats: .347 AVG, .373 OBP, 8 R, 4 RBI, 0 HR
  • Projected Stats: .347 AVG, .373 OBP, 72 R, 36 RBI, 0 HR
  • Thoughts: Despite not having a spot in the lineup to begin the year, Theriot has managed to play in all but one game. And he has been on a tear, especially in the last few. There's no room in the lineup for him though, whether in the outfield or infield. He deserves a spot, but there are none left. Yet another reason why Jones needs to go.


Cliff Floyd



  • Current Stats: .261 AVG, .277 OBP, 6 R, 6 RBI, 1 HR
  • Projected Stats: .261 AVG, .277 OBP, 54 R, 54 RBI, 9 HR
  • Thoughts: Floyd is getting more playing time than Murton, most likely because he is a lefty and Murton is a righty. Usually in a veteran-youngster platoon it's the other way around. He hasn't had any issues related to his injury which is very promising. And he's yet another reason why Hendry needs to deal some players, this makes Floyd, Murton, Jones, and Theriot who all deserve a spot in the outfield, and we only have room for one of them.

Honorable Mention:
  • Zambrano and Marquis are both batting .300+, and Zambrano is technically on pace to hit 12 home runs, or more than Derrek Lee in 1/5th of the games.
  • Henry Blanco is batting .125 and he's awful. I love the guy but come on, learn to hit man. How can you be that much worse than 2 of our pitchers?
  • Ronny Cedeno is hitting .107 and is even worse than Blanco.
  • Daryle Ward has found his way into 14 games and hasn't done much of anything notable. And apparently he's so slow that Jason Marquis gets to pinch hit for him, even if it means we have no one to play first base the next inning.
I'll be at the game tonight and tomorrow. Sometime soon I'll get in a review of the pitching. Let's just say Rich Hill = Cy Young for now. I was going to do it here but it turned out to be really long. I think less detail is needed in the future.

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